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How I spend money 😁

🔺Long on AVAX

I'm opening a trade, you could say, by the book 😅
See for yourself: a "double bottom," increased volume on the second dip, a shift to growth from a key support level. All of these are strong signs of a reversal.

Take-profit: $25.20.
Stop-loss: $20.00.

❗️I'm expecting a profit within two days.

If you agree with my reasoning, give a 👍.
If you think it's still too early to go long, give a 👎.

🕯 Market condition on 09/09

The market is moving sideways. 💰 BTC is now trading around $54,700, 🔹ETH is trading around $2,290.

Bitcoin dominance: 56.93%;
Fear and Greed Index: 26 (fear);
Altcoin Index: 29;
Market capitalization: $1.94 trillion.

Keeping an eye on the NFT segment

The situation in the NFT market is ambiguous: there are positive signals, but there's still no confidence in the return of a boom in this area.

➡️ Personally, I believe that AI tokens are currently much more promising, but I’m open to revisiting my strategy if there are valid reasons to do so.

➡️ As for NFT project tokens, there has been a significant increase in developer activity, which usually has a positive impact on the price in the medium term. For now, the only cryptocurrency in this group that interests me is Metaplex — a relatively new project that, unlike other tokens, has been steadily in the green over the past year.

❗️However, I’m not entering the market just yet; I’m waiting for confirmation of positive expectations. Especially since the initial push for market recovery should come from Bitcoin and leading altcoins.

📉Losses on OM

Compared to many altcoins, OM looked pretty good and held an important support level while Bitcoin remained in the $54,000-55,000 range.

But after BTC's short-term drop to $52,700, my SL didn’t hold👎

❗️ Opening trades against the trend is always risky, so considering the situation in the ETF sector, there's nothing surprising about it.

This week, I have 2 trades in profit and 2 trades in loss. I’ll be paying more attention to risk management!

❗️So, about BTC: the situation is quite difficult for the bulls. The selling pressure is stable, the rebounds are relatively insignificant, the psychological level of $50,000 will be tested next?

Quite possible...

🐳What Projects are Whales Investing in?

➡️ There's some interesting data on whale investment structures. Surprisingly, the leaders are relatively unknown projects that are not in the top 100 by market capitalization: SuperRare, PepeFork, and Stargate Finance.

➡️ The only exception is Polygon. It seems that after the rebranding and the launch of POL instead of MATIC, the project has once again caught the attention of major investors. I also plan to moderately invest in POL for the mid-term (up to 6 months).

➡️ As for the smaller projects, I interpret the whales' strategy as: active entry > pump > profit-taking. It seems they continue to make solid gains while we're in a sideways market.

❗️However, I don’t recommend jumping into such projects, as whales can dump their tokens at any moment, and no technical or fundamental analysis will help you in that case.

It’s better to choose projects with sufficient liquidity.

📊Long on OM

The bears are still fairly strong, but I don’t think their dominance will last much longer. For now, I'm entering short-term positions in projects that are showing strong momentum above the market.

I’ve chosen a token from the Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization sector, OM, for the following reasons:

1) Several global RWA projects are being implemented right now (potential for positive news to act as growth drivers);
2) OM is trading within a sideways channel, and a return to the upper boundary can be expected;
3) Trading activity is increasing as the token price rises — a good sign.

So, I'm buying OM/USDT:
Take profit: $0.98
Stop-loss: $0.875

❗️Risk: The token is heavily dependent on BTC and ETH; if they face another drop, OM won’t be able to hold key support.

🕯 Market condition on 09/06

The market is showing fall. 💰 BTC is now trading around $56,300, 🔹ETH is trading around $2,380.

Bitcoin dominance: 57.29%;
Fear and Greed Index: 22 (fear);
Altcoin Index: 27;
Market capitalization: $1.98 trillion.

📊Most Traders Are in the Red Again

➡️ Here's an interesting statistic about open positions on Binance. Many traders are actively shorting altcoins right now, with the top favorites being Tron, Stellar, and 1Inch.

➡️ And what are the results? Over the past 24 hours, all of these coins have increased in price instead of dropping. The biggest gainer was 1Inch (+7.5%), which was also the most heavily shorted by traders😅.

➡️ What does this indicate? If you’re going to use this information, it’s to trade against the sentiment of the majority. But generally, it's best to analyze the market independently and make your own decisions. That way, your chances of making a profit are higher, and you'll always understand where the mistakes (if any) occurred and how to fix them.

❗️Blindly following the majority’s opinion is a surefire way for a trader to go broke. I know plenty of examples of this firsthand.

🪙Bond Market and BTC

➡️ Today, a very significant event occurred for all investors, although most didn’t notice it amid the general "information noise."

➡️ The yield spread between 10- and 2-year U.S. bonds has turned positive again (for the first time in over two years). A negative spread (which was present earlier) signaled expectations of a recession and low economic activity, which greatly restrained investments in high-risk assets.

➡️ Now the situation is changing. The positive expectations are not due to an improvement in the economic situation (in fact, there is no good news here), but rather because the Federal Reserve is expected to lower rates and the government is expected to increase spending.

➡️ This, in turn, will lead to a significant capital flow into crypto assets. The higher the spread, the (all else being equal) higher the price of BTC. For example, in 2020-2021, when the spread increased from current levels to 1.6 percentage points, BTC’s price rosemore than 7x!

❗️I don’t expect such a growth this time, but in my opinion, a 3-4x increase is quite a realistic forecast.

💰 The trade worked out, and we hit the first take profit very quickly👍

➡️ By the way, I unexpectedly faced some criticism from a few acquaintances yesterday regarding this trade, questioning how one can buy into an obviously weak project.

➡️ Let me reiterate my logic: for long-term investments, I choose BTC and the most reliable/promising altcoins. But when trading, I consider all coins and tokens without exception. All of them can bring good profits with the right position entries, TP/SL settings, etc. Personal preferences don't belong here.

📈 That's why I'm doubly pleased that the results with STRK confirmed the correctness of this approach.

🕯 Market condition on 09/05

The market is showing growth. 💰 BTC is now trading around $57,200, 🔹ETH is trading around $2,400.

Bitcoin dominance: 57.52%;
Fear and Greed Index: 29 (fear);
Altcoin Index: 18;
Market capitalization: $2 trillion.

Some thoughts about ETH

🚀Long on Starknet

While fear reigns in the market, I'm opening long positions. This strategy usually works well for me.

I've decided to go with Starknet. It's not even about the news that Vitalik Buterin holds large volumes of STRK. He's in it for the long term, but I'm planning a short-term trade 😅

What caught my attention more is how quickly the token was bought up during the dip and how it's now growing on increasing volumes.

Looks like whales are getting into STRK 🐳

So, I'm buying STRK/USDT.

Stop-loss: $0.34.

Take-profit 1: $0.40.
Take-profit 2: $0.42.

📊Analogies with the August 5 Crash

➡️ The crypto market crash on September 3-4 shares many similarities with the situation a month ago. Negative macroeconomic reports, regulatory pressure, and weak demand from institutional investors were present in both cases.

➡️ I also noticed another detail: August 5 was a Monday. This week, Monday, September 2, was a non-trading day — a federal holiday in honor of Labor Day in the U.S. My point is that days following weekends and holidays (for traditional investors, since cryptocurrencies trade 24/7) are especially risky in terms of volatility.

➡️ Now I just need to figure out how to use this in trading. 😅

I’m thinking of setting limit orders (pending orders to buy/sell at a specific price) in such cases.

🕯 Market condition on 09/04

The market is showing fall. 💰 BTC is now trading around $56,400, 🔹ETH is trading around $2,370.

Bitcoin dominance: 57.39%;
Fear and Greed Index: 27 (fear);
Altcoin Index: 18;
Market capitalization: $1.98 trillion.

🔺Losses on AVAX

🔽 The market crash triggered my stop-loss on AVAX.

But this trade will stick with me because everything was going according to plan, and the price missed my take-profit by just 2 cents 😱 Then AVAX went sideways, and now it has dropped critically.

❗️Sometimes, 2 cents can determine the outcome of significant financial operations.

Yesterday, I was in the black, today – in the red. No worries, we learn from it and move forward👍