🚀 FX Trading Ideas – Exclusive from Traders Union with Anton Kharitonov: Daily analytics, forecasts, and ideas for your Forex trades.
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☝️Oil is trading near a strong support area, which increases the chances of an upward correction developing, which could have a positive impact on the dynamics of NOK.
In addition, the ECB decision could become a reason for larger-scale sales of EUR.
This is a traditional practice in the "golden" times of forex and such a correlation can be used for trading, i.e. if the stock market grows, then the USDJPY pair can also grow, and, in fact, vice versa.
☝️At this stage, it is not yet clear whether this is a return of correlation or a temporary phenomenon, so the above is not a call for active actions😄
This week, the ECB meeting will take place, the results of which will affect the dynamics of EURUSD. In anticipation of this event, the pair may trade with a negative sentiment.
The demand for yen and gold as defensive assets against the backdrop of falling stock markets has not been observed for a long time, and perhaps now something like a new era is coming, or the return of the old one, when the correlation of instruments could be used both for trading and for hedging transactions.
It is too early to talk about this, let's see how everything goes further.
A significant increase in US non-farm payrolls and/or a significant decline in unemployment could support the USD; otherwise, pressure could increase.
Today is another "first Friday" of the month and, therefore, the release of the US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data. This time, these data should give an idea of what the Fed's interest rate cut later this month might be - by 25 b.p. or by 50 b.p.
There is an opinion that a cut of 50 b.p. right away could raise suspicions that the Fed sees significant risks of a recession and therefore acts so "toughly", and this could cause panic in the markets. There is also an opinion that the Fed has gone too fast and too far in the rate hike cycle, so a cut of 50 b.p. would be justified.
As always, economists and experts confuse the minds of traders, so read less of their articles and wait for the release of the above data😁
☝️However, today's statistics are not as important for the markets as tomorrow's US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data, so the major pairs can trade within the current ranges.
Market participants will primarily focus on US labor market data. An increase in the number of employed and/or a decrease in jobless claims may have a positive effect on the USD dynamics; otherwise, it will remain under pressure.
No stability...)
The current decline significantly increases the likelihood of breaking through this support and falling to strong support around the level of 142.00, where I intend to open a long position. However, the release of very strong NFP and/or unemployment in the US can return USDJPY to 147.00.
Tomorrow, unemployment claims data will be published, where a significant decrease in the number of applications can also contribute to the growth of the pair.
This did not cause much of a reaction in the market; after a slight decline, the CAD is currently recouping losses, but its return to current highs in a pair with the USD is unlikely.
Amid the interest rate differential, the CAD may remain in a vulnerable position.
Bank of Canada rate decision. According to the forecast, the Central Bank may cut the rate by 0.25%, which will increase pressure on CAD. Maintaining the rate and the intention to keep it at the current level for a longer period of time may provide support.
US Factory orders. Growth of 3.8% is expected, a much lower value may negatively affect the dynamics of the USD; above the forecast - support.
In general, in the run-up to the publication of the US non-farm payrolls report, large-scale movements in pairs with USD are unlikely to be expected.
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